File: stay or switch.swf-(1.12 MB, 550x400, Other)
[_] Random mode Anonymous 03/21/16(Mon)22:53:04 No.3046117
Marked for deletion (old).
>> [_] Anonymous 03/21/16(Mon)23:09:29 No.3046125
inb4 50 replies
>> [_] Anonymous 03/21/16(Mon)23:27:12 No.3046140
I know this guy who literally believes he has bad luck. We play Magic: the Gathering together and
he's often explained that dice will roll differently for him. Not if he touches the dice, just if
the outcome is something he cares about. He said the average of the dice will always be
predictably the same, but there will be higher variance for him, in a way that somehow leads to a
bad outcome.
I tried to explain that variance is measurable and predictable also, and he politely said that
was my opinion and he disagreed with my opinion.
The punchline (which only Magic players will understand) is that he always builds three or four
color decks but he doesn't prioritize color fixing. He thought Brilliant Spectrum, the converge
draw spell that has you draw up to four cards then discard two, was a good first-pickable card.
>> [_] Anonymous 03/21/16(Mon)23:32:31 No.3046147
Always switch.
>> [_] Anonymous 03/21/16(Mon)23:32:54 No.3046149
I remember reading about this. Apparently switching everytime is the better option. Reason being,
they aren't eliminating at random.
>>3046140
Tell him to work on his hypergeometric distribution game.
>> [_] Anonymous 03/21/16(Mon)23:34:11 No.3046153
>>3046140
As a huge FNM dweeb he's a moron. Especially with the current meta, unless your running all one
mechanic like Slivers duo/mono decks will win hands down due to the extra color costs most late
turn decks need.
Even in a perfect game I've beat better decks simply because they couldn't combo well late-mid
game.
>> [_] Anonymous 03/21/16(Mon)23:50:18 No.3046164
>>3046153
More often than not, a game will be decided due to consistent drops early on. I've beaten control
blues with an aggro-combo gruul in as much as three to six rounds simply because I got fatties
out fast. It should go without saying: minimum decksize, progressive cost and balanced color
ratios, maximize key cards.
>> [_] Anonymous 03/22/16(Tue)00:18:26 No.3046183
>>3046164
I completely agree. I was talking about Battle for Zendikar booster draft and I play draft most
often, but I'm sure the same holds in other formats. A lot can be done to increase the
consistency of your deck.
He builds decks with high variance, and instead of learning from his mistakes, blames luck.
(My post wasn't closely related to the flash, but I think about this guy whenever questions of
probability come up.)
>> [_] Anonymous 03/22/16(Tue)00:30:36 No.3046188
If your first pick was a car, there are two goats, they show one at random. If you switch, you'll
land on the other goat.
If your first pick was a goat, there is only one other goat, the have to open that door. Then if
you switch, you'll get the car.
The important point is that your first pick has only a 1/3 chance of being a car, so the second
scenario is more likely.
If you make the numbers more extreme, the right answer is more obvious. Imagine there are 100
doors and 99 goats. After your first pick, they can open 98 doors and show goats (they can always
do this, regardless of which door you choose.) Do you want to stick with your one-in-a-hundred
first pick, or switch to the door that will be correct if your first pick was wrong?
>> [_] Anonymous 03/22/16(Tue)00:39:43 No.3046194
>>3046140
>>3046153
>>3046164
>>3046183
>>>/tg/
>> [_] Anonymous 03/22/16(Tue)00:44:36 No.3046198
I like the story about the mathematician who belligerently denied the Monty Hall problem. He
finally conceded after people showed him through the results of computerized simulations that
that the increased likelihood of winning after switching empirically exists.
>> [_] Anonymous 03/22/16(Tue)00:46:49 No.3046201
>>3046194
>>>/fag/
>> [_] Anonymous 03/22/16(Tue)00:50:52 No.3046206
>>3046117
Currently at 9 wins in a row for switching.
Rigged.
